Tuesday, January 23, 2007
Performance in At-risk Games: National Overview through 1/22/07
Let's spend some time with our one-bid friends...
Disclaimer: Obviously, all at-risk games (all losses plus road/neutral wins plus home wins against NCAA Tournament teams) are not created equally so I'll provide more information than just the numbers. I am listing teams in order of efficiency margin (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) simply as an organizational choice. These are not rankings.
Butler hasn't played any at-risk games since the last national update, but they have continued to hammer their conference opponents. They're the early co-favorites (with Memphis) to lead the nation in average efficiency margin in conference play.
Team Record OffEff DefEff Diff
Memphis 5-3 103 97 +6
vs. C-USA 5-0 113 88 +25
Wins: Oklahoma (+20), Kentucky (+18), @Houston (+15), @Southern Miss (+21), @East Carolina (+26)
Losses: vs. Georgia Tech (-9), @Tennessee (-26), @Arizona (-13)
The Tigers only managed 89 points per 100 possessions in their win at East Carolina. The weakness of the rest of their conference likely won't tell us where exactly they sit on the spectrum of teams who can defend but can't score consistently enough to be expecetd to reach the Final Four.
Kansas and Duke would sit on the high end, UConn would rest near the bottom, and LSU, Tennessee, and Oklahoma would all fall somewhere on the cusp of making the NCAA Tournament.